蜂窝夹层板撞击极限方程预测能力的提升

贾光辉; 欧阳智江; 蒋辉

doi:10.11883/1001-1455(2014)04-0397-07

蜂窝夹层板撞击极限方程预测能力的提升

doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2014)04-0397-07

北京航空航天大学宇航学院，北京 100191

基金项目: 国家空间碎片专题项目(K020110-1/3/6)

详细信息

作者简介:
贾光辉(1965—), 男, 副教授, 硕士生导师

中图分类号: O389
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-01-04
- 修回日期: 2013-04-17
- 刊出日期: 2014-07-25

Promotion of prediction ability of impact limit equationon honeycomb sandwich panel

School of Astronautics, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Beijing 100191, China

More Information

Corresponding author: Jia Guang-hui, jiaguanghui@buaa.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 蜂窝夹层板撞击极限方程是空间碎片撞击航天器风险评估的关键技术，目前描述其预测能力的指标主要有总体、安全预测正确率和绝对、相对误差。基于131个蜂窝夹层板的实验数据，分别描述各个预测指标在方程系数空间的变化特征，并采用层次化思路进行方程预测指标提升的探讨。结果发现，进行方程优化时，预测概率型指标可精确优化，而预测误差型指标可快速优化；总体预测正确率作为首要预测指标可优先用于研究航天器的在轨防护特性，而安全预测正确率作为首要指标则可优先用于其设计安全性。
- 爆炸力学 /
- 预测误差 /
- 撞击极限方程 /
- 蜂窝夹层板 /
- 预测正确率 /
- 预测指标
Abstract: Impact limit equations of honeycomb sandwich panel are the key of risk assessment of the spacecraft's impact from space debris. At present, the indicators of prediction ability mainly are the rate of correctly prediction (including the total rate and the safe rate) based on the prediction probability, and prediction error (including the absolute error and the relative error) based on the deviation of diameter predicted. In order to improve the prediction ability of equations, the variation of each predictive indicator in coefficient space of the equations was described based on 131 experimental data of honeycomb sandwich panel from the literature. And hierarchical analysis was used to investigate the promotion of prediction indicators of the equations. The results show that, equation optimization lead to accurately optimization of indicators of prediction probability, quickly optimization of prediction error. The total rate of correctly prediction can be used in the study of spacecraft's in-orbit protective properties as the primary indicator, and the safe rate of correctly prediction can be used in the security evaluation of design as the primary indicator. The prediction ability of the optimized equation has been greatly enhanced compared with the original equation.
- mechanics of explosion /
- prediction indicator /
- impact limit equation /
- honeycomb sandwich panel /
- rate of correctly prediction /
- prediction error

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图 1 预测概率型指标等值线

Figure 1. Contours of the predicted probability indicators

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图 2 预测误差型指标等值线

Figure 2. Contours of the prediction error indicators

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图 3 预测指标体系1和2

Figure 3. Predictor system 1 and 2

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图 4 预测指标体系3和4

Figure 4. Predictor system 3 and 4

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图 5 预测指标体系5和6

Figure 5. Predictor system 5 and 6

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表 1 预测指标体系列表

Table 1. List of predictor systems

体系	一级指标	二级指标	三级指标
1	P_t	P_s	S²
2	P_t	P_s	f²
3	P_s	P_t	S²
4	P_s	P_t	f²
5	S²	-	-
6	f²	-	-

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表 2 方程优化前后对比

Table 2. Comparison of the equations before and after optimization

体系	λ₁	λ₂	P_t/%	P_s/%	S²	f²
优化前	1.000	1.000	72	76	0.061 5	4.932 4
1	1.050	0.557	85	95	0.017 5	0.691 0
2	1.050	0.557	85	95	0.017 5	0.691 0
3	0.836	0.444	73	100	0.038 5	1.835 8
4	0.836	0.444	73	100	0.038 5	1.835 8
5	1.022	0.615	83	92	0.016 8	0.730 3
6	1.030	0.568	82	92	0.017 3	0.686 9

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参考文献(12)

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