圆筒试验JWL状态方程参数的贝叶斯标定

陈华 周海兵 刘国昭 孙占峰 张树道

陈华, 周海兵, 刘国昭, 孙占峰, 张树道. 圆筒试验JWL状态方程参数的贝叶斯标定[J]. 爆炸与冲击, 2017, 37(4): 585-590. doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2017)04-0585-06
引用本文: 陈华, 周海兵, 刘国昭, 孙占峰, 张树道. 圆筒试验JWL状态方程参数的贝叶斯标定[J]. 爆炸与冲击, 2017, 37(4): 585-590. doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2017)04-0585-06
Chen Hua, Zhou Haibing, Liu Guozhao, Sun Zhanfeng, Zhang Shudao. Bayesian calibration for parameters of JWL equation of state in cylinder test[J]. Explosion And Shock Waves, 2017, 37(4): 585-590. doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2017)04-0585-06
Citation: Chen Hua, Zhou Haibing, Liu Guozhao, Sun Zhanfeng, Zhang Shudao. Bayesian calibration for parameters of JWL equation of state in cylinder test[J]. Explosion And Shock Waves, 2017, 37(4): 585-590. doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2017)04-0585-06

圆筒试验JWL状态方程参数的贝叶斯标定

doi: 10.11883/1001-1455(2017)04-0585-06
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 11472060

国家自然科学基金项目 11671413

中国工程物理研究院科学技术发展基金项目 ZYSZ1518-13

北京应用物理与计算数学研究所所长青年基金项目 ZYSZ1518-13

详细信息
    作者简介:

    陈华(1979-),女,博士,副研究员,chen_hua@iapcm.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: O381

Bayesian calibration for parameters of JWL equation of state in cylinder test

  • 摘要: 在研究数值模拟的输入参数引入的不确定性时,通常需要人为给定每个输入参数的概率分布,且输入参数概率分布的选择可能会对分析结果产生直接影响。利用贝叶斯方法标定了圆筒试验JWL状态方程参数,得到了标定参数的估计值和后验分布,并研究了不同统计模型假设对标定参数的估计值和后验分布的影响。贝叶斯后验分布融合了基准试验的试验数据的信息,因此将其作为不确定度量化分析时输入参数的初始概率分布,可以尽量减少分布选择引入的认知不确定性。
  • 图  1  圆筒试验的试验装置示意图

    Figure  1.  Device of cylinder test

    图  2  圆筒试验径向半径和时间的关系

    Figure  2.  Radius vs. time in cylinder test

    图  3  GP代理模型预测的结果和数值计算结果的比较

    Figure  3.  Comparison of predictions of the GP surrogate model with numerical simulations

    图  4  两模型的后验概率等高线和最大后验估计

    Figure  4.  Posterior distribution and MPE with different models

    图  5  径向半径的预测、试验和模拟结果的比较

    Figure  5.  Comparison of radius histories obtained by prediction, experiment and simulation

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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2015-12-30
  • 修回日期:  2016-04-25
  • 刊出日期:  2017-07-25

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