摘要:
燃气泄漏爆炸事故严重威胁公共安全,而准确预测可燃气体泄漏爆炸效应的先决条件是确定气体泄漏后的浓度分布。为构建可燃气体泄漏扩散的实时全场时空预测模型,实现等效气云体积的高效预测,本文提出一种基于双神经网络架构与多阶段训练策略的图神经网络模型(Multi-Stage Dual Graph Neural Network, MSDGNN)。该模型包含两个协同工作的子网络:1)浓度网络(<italic>N</italic>con)用于建立连续时间步浓度场之间的映射关系;2)体积网络(<italic>N</italic>vol)用于生成每个时间步的等效气体云体积,为爆炸风险评估提供量化指标。为进一步提升模型性能,开发了分阶段渐进式训练策略对双网络进行联合优化。验证结果表明:相较于传统单一网络架构(如MGN),双网络架构通过解耦浓度场预测与等效气云体积预测任务,有效规避了单目标损失函数中权重因子对训练过程的干扰。多阶段训练策略通过分步参数优化,可解决传统方法对训练数据拟合不足的问题,使浓度场与等效气云体积的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别从49.47%和108.93%大幅降低至7.55%和9.07%;同时,模型泛化误差(MAPE)从41.18%(浓度场)和38.81%(等效气云体积)分别降至8.01%和14.92%。此外,在泄漏速率、泄漏高度及持续时间等关键参数超出训练数据范围时,MSDGNN仍表现出良好的预测鲁棒性。与CFD数值模拟方法相比,本模型在保持预测精度的同时,计算效率提升了三个数量级,为可燃气体安全监测提供了有效的实时分析工具。
Abstract:
Gas leakage and explosion accidents pose a serious threat to public safety, and a prerequisite for accurately predicting the explosive effects of combustible gas leakage is to determine the concentration distribution after leakage. To develop a real-time, full-field spatiotemporal prediction model for combustible gas leakage and diffusion and to achieve efficient prediction of the equivalent gas cloud volume, a novel graph neural network model based on a dual-neural-network architecture and a multi-stage training strategy, named Multi-Stage Dual Graph Neural Network (MSDGNN), has been proposed in this study. The MSDGNN model consists of two synergistic sub-networks: (1) the Concentration Network (<italic>N</italic>con), which establishes the mapping relationship between the concentration fields of two consecutive timesteps, and (2) the Volume Network (<italic>N</italic>vol), which generates the equivalent gas cloud volume at each timestep to provide a quantitative metric for explosion risk assessment. To further enhance model performance, a multi-stage progressive training strategy has been developed to jointly optimize the dual networks. To evaluate the performance of MSDGNN, a dataset considering different leakage rates, leakage points, and leakage durations was constructed. Experimental results demonstrate that compared with traditional single-network architectures (e.g., MGN), the dual-network architecture effectively decouples the tasks of concentration field prediction and risk assessment. This approach significantly mitigates the interference of weight factors in single-objective loss functions during the training process. The multi-stage training strategy, through stepwise parameter optimization, successfully addresses the issue of insufficient data fitting encountered in traditional methods. Compared with MGN, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for concentration fields and equivalent gas cloud volumes is reduced from 49.47% and 108.93% to 7.55% and 9.07%, respectively. Furthermore, the generalization error (MAPE) of MSDGNN for concentration fields and equivalent gas cloud volumes is reduced from 41.18% and 38.81% to 8.01% and 14.92%, respectively. In addition, MSDGNN exhibits robust prediction performance even when key parameters such as leakage rate, leakage location, and leakage duration exceed the range of training data. Compared with CFD numerical simulation methods, the proposed model achieves a three-order-of-magnitude improvement in computational efficiency while maintaining prediction accuracy, providing an effective real-time analytical tool for industrial safety monitoring.