摘要:
聚焦密闭管道可燃气体燃爆火焰淬熄安全防护需求,基于燃气组分、管道几何、初始条件及多孔介质结构参数构建九维特征空间,建立了多孔介质临界淬熄直径预测模型。为突破传统经验公式精度不足与应用局限性,通过系统性的超参数优化与模型验证,深入对比并证实了Transformer架构在临界淬熄直径预测问题上的显著优越性:其预测性能(平均绝对误差MAE = 0.068, 均方误差MSE = 0.008, 相关系数R2 = 0.928)显著超越了广泛应用的卷积神经网络(CNN)模型(MAE = 0.079, MSE = 0.012, R2 = 0.906),不仅整体误差更低,且对离群点的鲁棒性更强。深入分析发现,Transformer模型的核心优势源于其自注意力机制对淬熄过程中关键临界特征的精准捕获与高效建模能力。在数据归一化敏感性验证中,Transformer模型展现出优异的鲁棒性,这归功于其层归一化机制所赋予的特征解耦与稳定表示能力。基于上述系统性评估,最终确立Transformer模型为预测多孔介质临界淬熄直径的最优模型,为燃爆安全防控策略的量化制定及管道阻火器安全性能的精细化设计提供了强大的、可操作的决策支持工具,具有重要的理论指导意义。
Abstract:
The research addresses the safety imperative of preventing flammable gas explosions in enclosed pipelines by establishing a predictive model for the critical quenching diameter within porous media flame arresters. A novel predictive framework was developed based on a comprehensive nine-dimensional feature space incorporating gas composition parameters (e.g., hydrogen equivalence ratio), pipeline geometry dimensions (length-to-diameter ratio), initial thermodynamic conditions (pressure), and porous medium structural characteristics (thickness, material thermal conductivity). A systematic investigation was conducted to identify the optimal hyperparameter configurations for both Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Transformer architectures. Rigorous validation demonstrated the Transformer model's statistically significant superiority over the CNN model across all key performance metrics. Specifically, the model achieved a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.068, a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.008, and an R2 coefficient of determination of 0.928. The performance notably surpassed the CNN results (MAE = 0.079, MSE = 0.012, R2 = 0.906). Beyond evaluation indicators, detailed error distribution analysis confirmed the Transformer's enhanced predictive accuracy and reduced susceptibility to outliers. The superior performance is attributed to the Transformer’s intrinsic self-attention mechanism, which excels at dynamically identifying and weighting critical interdependencies among the diverse input features governing the complex quenching process. The capability enables more precise capture of the nonlinear phenomena defining the quenching limit. Furthermore, robustness testing involving diverse data normalization schemes revealed the Transformer model exhibits greater stability. This resilience stems from its inherent layer normalization mechanism, which effectively decouples feature dependencies and mitigates sensitivity to input scaling variations. Consequently, the Transformer architecture is established as the definitive optimal model for this critical safety prediction task. Its significant advantage of requiring minimal data preprocessing prior to deployment offers substantial practical utility. The model provides robust quantitative decision-making support essential for formulating effective gas explosion mitigation strategies and optimizing the safety design parameters of pipeline flame arresters. By enabling accurate prediction of the critical quenching diameter under varied scenarios, this work delivers a valuable tool for enhancing inherent safety in industries handling combustible gases within confined pipeline systems.