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基于贝叶斯深度主动学习的三维城市建筑群爆炸载荷快速预测

潘美霖,  张情,  邱玖禄,  田宙,  钟巍,  冷春江,  彭卫文

潘美霖, 张情, 邱玖禄, 田宙, 钟巍, 冷春江, 彭卫文. 基于贝叶斯深度主动学习的三维城市建筑群爆炸载荷快速预测[J]. 爆炸与冲击. doi: 10.11883/bzycj-2025-0383
引用本文: 潘美霖, 张情, 邱玖禄, 田宙, 钟巍, 冷春江, 彭卫文. 基于贝叶斯深度主动学习的三维城市建筑群爆炸载荷快速预测[J]. 爆炸与冲击. doi: 10.11883/bzycj-2025-0383
PAN Meilin, ZHANG Qing, QIU Jiulu, TIAN Zhou, ZHONG Wei, LENG Chunjiang, PENG Weiwen. Fast prediction of blast loading for three-dimensional urban building clusters based on Bayesian deep active learning[J]. Explosion And Shock Waves. doi: 10.11883/bzycj-2025-0383
Citation: PAN Meilin, ZHANG Qing, QIU Jiulu, TIAN Zhou, ZHONG Wei, LENG Chunjiang, PENG Weiwen. Fast prediction of blast loading for three-dimensional urban building clusters based on Bayesian deep active learning[J]. Explosion And Shock Waves. doi: 10.11883/bzycj-2025-0383

基于贝叶斯深度主动学习的三维城市建筑群爆炸载荷快速预测

doi: 10.11883/bzycj-2025-0383
详细信息
    作者简介:

    潘美霖(1999- ),女,硕士,panml25@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn

    通讯作者:

    钟 巍(1986- ),男,博士,研究员,zhongwei@nint.ac.cn

  • 中图分类号: O389; TP183

Fast prediction of blast loading for three-dimensional urban building clusters based on Bayesian deep active learning

  • 摘要: 城市爆炸载荷快速预测对于防灾设计、应急救援及灾后重建具有重要意义。针对现有基于深度学习的预测模型依赖大量高质量样本、建模成本高且样本利用率低的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯深度主动学习(Bayesian deep active learning, BDAL)的三维城市建筑群爆炸载荷快速预测方法。研究在三维空间构建规则化城市建筑群,设定包含能量源当量、起爆距离、建筑尺寸及街道特征的七维参数空间,采用全因子实验设计系统生成参数组合,并利用blastFoam软件开展三维数值模拟,获取关键位置超压峰值数据。基于贝叶斯推断实现模型参数的概率化建模,结合主动采样策略量化预测不确定性并优化样本选择,从而提升样本利用效率。测试结果显示,在780组未经训练样本上,该方法的平均绝对百分比误差为13.1%,预测区间覆盖真实值的概率为85.9%,单点预测响应时间小于20 ms,仅需约50%的标注数据即可达到与全样本训练的被动式深度学习模型相近的精度。结果表明,该方法可在典型规则化三维城市环境中实现高效、低成本的爆炸载荷预测,具有防灾减灾领域的应用潜力。
  • 图  1  三维城市场景

    Figure  1.  Three-dimensional urban scene

    图  2  建筑群中监测点位置说明

    Figure  2.  Illustration of POI location in the building complex

    图  3  网格灵敏性分析

    Figure  3.  Grid sensitivity analysis

    图  4  BDAL实现流程

    Figure  4.  BDAL implementation process

    图  5  全样本模型预测区间图

    Figure  5.  Interval predictions for the full sample model

    图  6  数值模拟真实值与模型预测值散点图

    Figure  6.  Scatter plots of the numerical simulation value and the model-predicted value

    图  7  超压峰值分布热力图

    Figure  7.  Thermal map of peak overpressure distribution

    图  8  超压峰值随比例距离变化情况

    Figure  8.  The variation of peak overpressure with the scaled distance

    图  9  主动学习性能评估

    Figure  9.  Evaluation of the active learning performance

    表  1  场景参数设计

    Table  1.   Scene parameter design

    参数 符号 单位 参数取值
    爆源 爆源当量 Q kT (1000, 2000, 3000)
    起爆距离 R m (1000, 2000, 3000)
    结构 建筑物长 l m (10, 20, 30)
    建筑物宽 w m (20, 40)
    建筑物高 h m (75, 100)
    街道 街道长 ls m (50, 75, 100)
    街道宽 ws m (50, 75)
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  2  超参数搜索范围

    Table  2.   Hyperparameter search range

    超参数网格搜索范围
    优化器[SGD, Adam, RMSprop]
    初始学习率[0.0001, 0.001, 0.01, 0.1]
    训练轮次[5000, 10000, 15000]
    随机失活率[0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5]
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  3  数值模拟与模型训练平台配置

    Table  3.   Configurations of numerical simulation and model training platforms

    平台处理器内存操作系统
    天河二号超级计算中心2×12 Intel Xeon E5-2692 v2/单节点128GB/单节点Linux lon26 3.10.0-514.el7.x86_64
    本地台式机AMD Ryzen7 3700X 8核32 GBWindows10
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  4  BDAL模型的超压峰值预测结果

    Table  4.   Prediction results of peak overpressure by BDAL model

    数据集MAPE/%R2PICP/%NMPIW/%
    训练集14.20.97489.32.1
    测试集13.10.97285.92.6
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  5  超压峰值随当量变化趋势

    Table  5.   The variation trends of peak overpressure with equivalent value

    位置 POI编号 数据来源 增长百分比/% 趋势误差/%
    街道中心点 1 真实值 189.1 12.9
    预测值 201.9
    2 真实值 190.2 3.5
    预测值 193.7
    3 真实值 177.7 14.0
    预测值 191.7
    5 真实值 186.1 4.3
    预测值 181.8
    8 真实值 183.9 5.2
    预测值 178.7
    建筑表面点 4 真实值 186.8 12.2
    预测值 174.6
    6 真实值 185.2 8.6
    预测值 193.9
    7 真实值 184.6 24.0
    预测值 208.6
    下载: 导出CSV

    表  6  不同方法的性能对比

    Table  6.   Performance comparison of different methods

    方法 50%训练样本 100%训练样本
    MAPE R2 PICP NMPIW MAPE R2 PICP NMPIW
    BDAL 0.172 0.945 0.722 0.060 0.131 0.972 0.859 0.026
    FCNN 0.529 0.388 − − 0.160 0.967 − −
    3D-DeBNN 0.226 0.875 0.620 0.078 0.137 0.971 0.854 0.025
    下载: 导出CSV
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出版历程
  • 收稿日期:  2025-11-25
  • 修回日期:  2026-04-14
  • 网络出版日期:  2026-04-20

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