摘要:
爆炸事故发生后,为快速、准确评估事故影响范围和严重程度,制定科学合理的应急响应策略,提出了一种基于开源信息融合的公共安全爆炸事故分析方法。进一步,针对山东高密“5·27”化工车间爆炸事故,快速构建了事故分析逻辑链条,即:基于开源信息获取爆炸产生、冲击波传播、爆炸后厂区和远区建筑结构损伤破坏等重要信息;基于建筑结构毁伤判据和冲击波传播规律,反演爆源位置和爆炸当量,并分析事故发生原因;基于数值仿真,为工业厂房的安全防护改进提供关键依据。结果表明:爆源位于1号硝化装置,爆炸当量约为12000 kg等效TNT,与基于现场勘察的调查结果一致,验证了新方法的有效性和准确性;此次事故主要原因是由于该公司实际生产负荷超出设计标准,设备长期处于满负荷运行状态,且长期忽视安全联锁系统;沿易发生爆炸事故的装置或结构外围设置防护结构,可以有效衰减传播至邻近建筑结构表面的冲击波载荷,降低其毁伤等级,缩小毁伤范围。新方法的提出为现有事故调查体系提供了全新路径,有效丰富了调查手段,具有持续研究的必要性和实践价值。
Abstract:
Following an explosion accident, a public safety explosion accident analysis method based on open-source information fusion was proposed to quickly and accurately assess the scope and severity of the accident's impact and to formulate a scientific and reasonable emergency response strategy. Furthermore, regarding the May 27 chemical plant explosion accident in Gaomi, Shandong, a logical chain for accident analysis was rapidly constructed. Specifically, open-source information was used to obtain critical details such as the explosion generation, the shockwaves propagation, and structural damage to buildings in both the plant area and far field. Based on criteria for structural damage and the laws of shockwave propagation, the explosion source location and explosive equivalent were reverse-calculated, and the cause of the accident was analyzed. Numerical simulations provided key evidence for improving safety protection in industrial plants. The results indicate that the explosion source was located at the No. 1 nitration device, with an explosive equivalent of approximately 12 tons of TNT, consistent with the conclusion based on field investigation, thereby verifying the effectiveness and accuracy of the new method. The main causes of the accident were identified as the company's actual production load exceeding design standards, prolonged operation of equipment under full load conditions, and long-term neglect of the safety interlock system. Installing protective structures around explosion-prone equipment or structures can effectively attenuate the shockwave load propagated to adjacent building surfaces, reduce the damage level, and narrow the destruction scope. The proposal of this new method provides a novel approach to the existing accident investigation system, effectively enriches investigation techniques, and demonstrates the necessity for continued research and practical value.